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LU9DCE > NEWS 09.10.90 13:32l 359 Lines 14765 Bytes #-12949 (0) @ WW
BID : 24445_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 09-OCT
Path: IV3SCP<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 261009/1130Z 24445@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI OCT 9 07:30:07 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI OCT 9 07:30:07 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI OCT 9 07:30:07 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI OCT 9 07:30:07 UTC
2026.
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SPC OCT 9, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA.
...FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING ISAIAS TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR PENSACOLA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE CENTER OF ISAIAS
APPROACHES THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON, RAINBANDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITHIN THESE BANDS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE BANDS IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY, WITH MLCAPE
LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG PARTS OF THE
COAST. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EAST
OF ISAIAS' CENTER EARLY THIS EVENING SUGGEST THAT 0-3 KM
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 200 M2/S2, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AS THE RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAIAS MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
..BROYLES/CHALMERS.. 10/09/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 9, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO PARTS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS INITIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST OR
WEST-CENTRAL AL SATURDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO ADVANCE
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OWING TO ITS PHASING WITH A
SUBTROPICAL BRANCH TROUGH, RESULTING IN THE BROADENING OF AN
ENHANCED, SOUTHERLY DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF
THE CYCLONE TRACK.
ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL APPROACH NORTHERN BAJA AND THE
LOWER-CO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS IT IS
DRAWN INTO THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST.
...SOUTHEAST...
AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NORTH INTO THE TN VALLEY, IT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INLAND THROUGH GA AND THE CAROLINAS,
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM (OR RETREATING WEDGE) FRONT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING WITHIN THE POLEWARD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER,
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS. WHERE
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR, THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WITH SIZABLE SRH WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE TORNADOES CENTERED LARGELY OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL GA SATURDAY WITH THAT THREAT SPREADING INTO PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
A CONDITIONAL INTENSITY GROUP 1 TORNADO CONTOUR WAS CONSIDERED OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
MAXIMIZED DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDED
THE INCLUSION OF THAT CONTOUR, AS WELL AS ANY HIGHER UNCONDITIONAL
TORNADO PROBABILITIES.
...LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITHIN A ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW PRECEDING
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO YIELD POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. A COMPARATIVELY GREATER RISK FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS VERTICAL SHEAR AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION.
...GREAT BASIN...
A BELT OF 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
EVOLVING, WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. STEEPENING LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
COINCIDE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL DATA INDICATE STRONGER INSTABILITY, LOW SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED.
..MEAD.. 10/09/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 9, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO THE DELMARVA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
COLORADO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO
THE DELMARVA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING, AND PARTS OF THE LOWER
COLORADO VALLEY MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER KY/TN SUNDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WITHIN A BROADER-SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST. ELSEWHERE, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL INITIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED WITHIN A BROAD
BELT OF ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FROM KY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL VA. THAT CYCLONE WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCING EAST THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
...DELMARVA INTO THE CAROLINAS...
CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST
ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION APPEAR LIKELY TO LIMIT AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE POLEWARD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.
NONETHELESS, BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF MODEST INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUD BREAKS MAY OCCUR. AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WILL
EXIST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL
DATA INDICATE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN THAT CURRENTLY DEPICTED.
...LOWER COLORADO AND VICINITY...
AS DETAILED IN THE RECENTLY ISSUED DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, THE
ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN AT LEAST MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THAT REGIME IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. THE
OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH BY AFTERNOON AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY LEAD TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
..MEAD.. 10/09/2026
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND PROLONGED
DRY, WARM CONDITIONS THAT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CURED FUELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION OF METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS AND RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERCS FORECAST TO COMMONLY EXCEED THE
80TH PERCENTILE) WILL CREATE IMPACTFUL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/WESTERN CONUS TODAY.
...MUCH OF WYOMING, CENTRAL MONTANA, SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AND
FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...
A COMBINATION OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA,
THE APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT, AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL FOSTER A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THE RESULTANT ENHANCED
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (WITH WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25
MPH) WILL DRIVE WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PROMOTE
SEASONALLY DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING THAT WILL SUPPORT RH
REDUCTIONS TO 10-20%. WITH ERCS COMMONLY AT OR ABOVE THE 80TH
PERCENTILE, THIS WILL SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL MONTANA SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH
OF WYOMING, SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AND PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. FURTHERMORE, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING, WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF 20+ MPH WINDS AND RH AROUND 15% IS EXPECTED.
WHILE STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS (20-25 MPH) ARE ALSO FORECAST IN THE
LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA, THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 00 UTC (6 PM MDT) IS EXPECTED TO
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE, A SHIFT TO WEAKENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
...SOUTHEAST OREGON, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, AND THE FAR WESTERN GREAT
BASIN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SIMILARLY SUPPORT WARM TEMPERATURES AND
SEASONALLY DEEP MIXING FROM SOUTHEASTERN OREGON INTO NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA, NORTHERN NEVADA, AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO. A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 MPH AMID MINIMUM RH
VALUES OF 15-20%. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL OVERLAP WITH
RECEPTIVE FUELS TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 00 UTC (5 PM PDT).
..CHALMERS.. 10/09/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON D2/SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WEST AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN WHERE ANTECEDENT
DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE AIDED IN THE CURING OF FINE FUELS.
...SIERRA FRONT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
DOWNSLOPING INTO THE SIERRA FRONT AND CENTRAL NEVADA, WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH)
FORECAST AMID RH VALUES DECREASING INTO THE 10-20% RANGE (15-25%
NEAR THE SIERRA FRONT). AN ANTECEDENT PERIOD OF PROLONGED DRY
CONDITIONS HAS AIDED IN THE DRYING OF FINE FUELS ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH ERCS NOTED TO BE AROUND THE 80TH PERCENTILE. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, AND PERHAPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
...EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS
OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A TIGHTENED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 15-25
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WHILE RH
VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS PRIOR DAYS (GENERALLY
15-25%), THIS WILL BE THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY OF DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WHERE ERCS ARE AROUND THE 80TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILES. THUS, THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
..CHALMERS.. 10/09/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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